{ "artefact": "PROSPECTIVE_FREEZE", "date": "2026-08-19", "first_race": "13:50", "freeze_sha256": "f2a6f869460b85eede85059f26b81d570ce0e058840e09d89a32ce9d96a8a59b", "frozen_at_bst": "2026-08-19T10:39:11", "governance": { "authority": "LOCKED", "capital_gbp": 0.0, "selections": 0, "staking": "FORBIDDEN", "targets": 0 }, "hypothesis": { "H1": "ALL unique RBD1: actual wins - sum of race-normalised BSP probability", "H2": "RBD1 = genuine BSP favourite", "H3": "RBD1 != genuine BSP favourite", "K": 3, "bonferroni_z": 2.24, "direction": "NEGATIVE, declared before racing", "stop_rule": "~2,616 eligible races, no optional stopping, no subgroup promotion" }, "leakage_check": "CLEAN", "market_fields_deliberately_null": [ "ACTUAL_FAVOURITE", "ACTUAL_SECOND_FAVOURITE", "RBD1_MARKET_RANK", "FALSE_ANCHOR", "MARKET_REJECTION", "MARKET_ALIGNMENT" ], "n_eligible_unique_rbd1": 35, "n_races": 36, "n_runners": 407, "outcome_accessed": false, "races": { "CARLISLE|14:05": { "ACTUAL_FAVOURITE": null, 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"COURSE": "YORK", "CRS_WINS": 0.0, "DAYS_SINCE_LTO": 53.0, "DECLARED_FIELD": 22.0, "DISTANCE": "6f", "DIST_WINS": 0.0, "DRAW": 1.0, "GOING": "GD", "GOING_WINS": 0.0, "NATIVE_RBD_PACE": 5.0, "OR": 75.0, "PREV_RACES": 3.0, "RACETYPE": "Nursery", "RBD_RANK": 18.0, "RBD_RATING": 105.0, "TIME": "17:20", "TISSUE_PRICE": 126.0, "TISSUE_RANK": 22, "horse": "SUESLASTCHANCE", "horse_raw": "Sues Last Chance" }, { "CLASS": 2, "CLASS_WINS": 0.0, "COUNTRY": "GB", "COURSE": "YORK", "CRS_WINS": 0.0, "DAYS_SINCE_LTO": 19.0, "DECLARED_FIELD": 22.0, "DISTANCE": "6f", "DIST_WINS": 1.0, "DRAW": 7.0, "GOING": "GD", "GOING_WINS": 0.0, "NATIVE_RBD_PACE": 4.0, "OR": 79.0, "PREV_RACES": 5.0, "RACETYPE": "Nursery", "RBD_RANK": 7.0, "RBD_RATING": 115.0, "TIME": "17:20", "TISSUE_PRICE": 21.0, "TISSUE_RANK": 13, "horse": "SUPERTUSCAN", "horse_raw": "Super Tuscan" }, { "CLASS": 2, "CLASS_WINS": 0.0, "COUNTRY": "GB", "COURSE": "YORK", "CRS_WINS": 0.0, "DAYS_SINCE_LTO": 19.0, "DECLARED_FIELD": 22.0, "DISTANCE": "6f", "DIST_WINS": 0.0, "DRAW": 2.0, "GOING": "GD", "GOING_WINS": 0.0, "NATIVE_RBD_PACE": 8.0, "OR": 83.0, "PREV_RACES": 4.0, "RACETYPE": "Nursery", "RBD_RANK": 12.0, "RBD_RATING": 112.0, "TIME": "17:20", "TISSUE_PRICE": 7.0, "TISSUE_RANK": 2, "horse": "THEDANCINGPIRATE", "horse_raw": "The Dancing Pirate" }, { "CLASS": 2, "CLASS_WINS": 0.0, "COUNTRY": "GB", "COURSE": "YORK", "CRS_WINS": 0.0, "DAYS_SINCE_LTO": 23.0, "DECLARED_FIELD": 22.0, "DISTANCE": "6f", "DIST_WINS": 1.0, "DRAW": 13.0, "GOING": "GD", "GOING_WINS": 1.0, "NATIVE_RBD_PACE": 5.0, "OR": 83.0, "PREV_RACES": 3.0, "RACETYPE": "Nursery", "RBD_RANK": 12.0, "RBD_RATING": 112.0, "TIME": "17:20", "TISSUE_PRICE": 34.0, "TISSUE_RANK": 20, "horse": "TOWELONTHETERRACE", "horse_raw": "Towelontheterrace" }, { "CLASS": 2, "CLASS_WINS": 0.0, "COUNTRY": "GB", "COURSE": "YORK", "CRS_WINS": 0.0, "DAYS_SINCE_LTO": 33.0, "DECLARED_FIELD": 22.0, "DISTANCE": "6f", "DIST_WINS": 0.0, "DRAW": 17.0, "GOING": "GD", "GOING_WINS": 1.0, "NATIVE_RBD_PACE": 6.0, "OR": 85.0, "PREV_RACES": 4.0, "RACETYPE": "Nursery", "RBD_RANK": 18.0, "RBD_RATING": 105.0, "TIME": "17:20", "TISSUE_PRICE": 34.0, "TISSUE_RANK": 21, "horse": "UNDERDOG", "horse_raw": "Underdog" } ] } }, "schema": "ELITE_PASS_PROSPECTIVE_STATE_MEASUREMENT_v1.1", "source_file": "Daily (44).xlsx", "source_sha256": "e7c7e8375e06129d", "tissue_status": "TISSUE_PRICE/TISSUE_RANK recorded as a VENDOR FORECAST. Matches the BSP favourite in 52.8% of races (n=1,404). NOT a market object." }