The most recent race in focus
Two reads published
Bath 15:17
Class 3 Novice Stakes · 1m · Good · 11 runners
Monday · 19 October 2026
Morning read · locked 08:27, before the first race
Morning favourite
Al Qayed
EP read
Few structural pressures on the favourite.
Race state
High stability
The race looks settled, and nothing points the other way.
Favourite vulnerability
Low
Very little in this race is working against the favourite.
Live market
Not available
minutes before the off · no reading was taken
No live market reading available.
What to watch
Has the market missed anything here?
Why we looked closer
One runner sits 27 points clear of the field on the pre-race ability rating Elite Pass works from — not the official handicap mark, which is built to a different purpose. Nothing in the pace picture opposes the ratings order. The structure itself reads cleanly.
Our reading of the evidence above, not a further measurement.
The evidence beneath it
This card gives you the featured read. Gold gives you the evidence beneath it — the race structure, what supports the read, what challenges it, and the market checkpoint by checkpoint.
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The evidence behind this read
Favourite vulnerability is uncalibrated. It is not a forecast that the favourite loses.
- Evidence coverage
- 92/100
Evidence coverage is how much of the pre-race evidence could be read for this race, not which way it points. It is not a win probability.
Why this race
40 eligible races assessed · 38 with a race state · 18 with a direction to settle against the exchange · 1 featured
A direction is never published as a daily call. Each one is frozen before racing and settled against Betfair SP into a pre-registered validation sample of 400. The sample is complete (534 settled) and is under review. No claim of accuracy is made until that review is published.
- Published08:27, before the off
The layer-by-layer evidence behind this figure — what each source returned, what supports the read and what challenges it — is in Elite Pass Gold. Free early access, 100 places.
Southwell 20:00
Class 3 Novice Stakes · 1m3f · Standard · 6 runners
Morning favourite
Im The One
EP read
Few structural pressures on the favourite.
Race state
Stable
The race looks fairly settled.
Favourite vulnerability
Low
Very little in this race is working against the favourite.
Live market
Not available
minutes before the off · no reading was taken
No live market reading available.
What to watch
Has the market missed anything here?
Why we looked closer
One runner sits 23 points clear of the field on the pre-race ability rating Elite Pass works from — not the official handicap mark, which is built to a different purpose. Nothing in the pace picture opposes the ratings order. The structure itself reads cleanly.
Our reading of the evidence above, not a further measurement.
The evidence beneath it
This card gives you the featured read. Gold gives you the evidence beneath it — the race structure, what supports the read, what challenges it, and the market checkpoint by checkpoint.
See the full Elite Pass read →
Early access is free and limited to 100 places. No card required.
The evidence behind this read
Favourite vulnerability is uncalibrated. It is not a forecast that the favourite loses.
- Evidence coverage
- 88/100
Evidence coverage is how much of the pre-race evidence could be read for this race, not which way it points. It is not a win probability.
- Published08:27, before the off
The layer-by-layer evidence behind this figure — what each source returned, what supports the read and what challenges it — is in Elite Pass Gold. Free early access, 100 places.
Evidence coverage is how much of the pre-race evidence could be read for this race. It is not a probability, and it does not predict a winner. The race state is the direction that evidence points.
Leopardstown 14:12 · 2026-10-18 · Stable · Favourite did not win
44 featured · 43 settled · 1 joint or unresolved
Favourite outcomes across settled days: 22 won, 21 did not. 42 of these carried a directional read; 2 were abstentions. Where Elite Pass abstained there is no prediction for a favourite result to score. Where it did read a direction, that read is settled against the exchange in the pre-registered sample, not by these counts.
Raw counts. No percentage is published at this sample size. Directional reads and abstentions partition the featured races; settled counts those with a resolved favourite result. Featured races are an editorially selected subset; no performance or calibration figure is ever computed from them.
How to read this
Elite Pass measures the race; it does not pick a horse.
Check another race
Today’s board is two races. Every other eligible race on the card was assessed too, and Race Check tells you whether Elite Pass got a clear enough picture of it — including when the answer is no.